Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Why Bitcoin Went Sideways in 2025: ETF Flows, Gold Outperformance, and the Patience Edge

Episode Summary

Brady and John recap a frustratingly flat 2025 for Bitcoin, then use the HODL anniversary as a framework for conviction: ignore the scoreboard, audit your thesis, and hold through volatility. They contrast Bitcoin’s lag with gold’s surge, debate ETF/derivatives dynamics, and argue macro deficits and financial surveillance keep strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term case.

Episode Notes

• Brady and John open by owning missed 2025 price targets, framing the year as a sideways-to-down “crab market” around the high-$80Ks
• They unpack why “Bitcoin clicking” for the world happens far slower than new believers expect, even with ETFs and a pro-Bitcoin political backdrop
• The show marks the HODL meme’s origin (GameKyuubi’s “I AM HODLING” post) and uses it to reinforce long-horizon discipline BitcoinTalk+1
• They revisit Michael Saylor’s 2013 “Bitcoin days are numbered” tweet as a case study in changing your mind (commonly dated Dec 19, 2013) CryptoPotato
• Macro recap includes a cooler-than-expected CPI print (with caveats about data quality) and what it could mean for Fed cuts and liquidity
• Fiscal commentary highlights “victory laps” over still-massive deficits and why the debt train likely only slows, not stops
• They critique the idea of pushing 100% stock ownership as a policy goal, arguing it structurally advantages existing asset holders via compounding
• A Jeff Gundlach clip anchors the “patience is alpha” idea: long-horizon winners often look wrong early, forcing managers to churn BitcoinTalk
• They compare gold’s strong year to Bitcoin’s lag, noting ETF flows (IBIT) remain heavy despite negative YTD performance and debating “sell vs buy” interpretations
• Quick hits include an options-market “covered call yield” theory for capped rallies, and an update on Samourai Wallet clemency chatter as a privacy battleground