Trump just signed an executive order allowing Bitcoin in 401(k) retirement accounts, while the Federal Reserve released notes on revaluing gold and even mentioned funding a strategic Bitcoin reserve. With new U.S. gold tariffs highlighting why Bitcoin can’t be taxed at the border, a 93% probability of FED rate cuts in September, and less than 30 days until the critical 500-day post-halving mark, the panel debates whether we’re about to see a parabolic blow-off top or the end of the 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
Major Policy Shift: President Trump signs an executive order directing the Department of Labor to reexamine fiduciary guidance, opening the door for Bitcoin and crypto investments in 401(k) retirement plans — a $9 trillion market.
Implementation Timeline: Panel agrees it’s medium-to-long-term bullish but may take 1–2 years before Bitcoin ETFs appear broadly in 401(k) offerings due to provider-by-provider approval.
Bitcoin vs. Crypto: Hosts stress ongoing need to educate the public on why Bitcoin is different from other cryptocurrencies, as broader “crypto” inclusion could expose investors to higher-risk assets.
Regulatory Clarity: Michael Saylor and others call for clearer frameworks to classify assets, separating Bitcoin from altcoins to prevent harmful policy spillover.
FED Gold Revaluation Paper: Federal Reserve explores revaluing gold reserves (currently marked at $42/oz) to unlock budget-neutral spending capacity — potentially tied to creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Hidden Inflation Signal: Revaluing gold to current market prices (~$3,500/oz) would implicitly acknowledge an 8%+ annual inflation rate since the gold peg was abandoned.
Gold Tariffs & Bitcoin Advantage: Temporary headlines about potential U.S. gold import tariffs spark discussion; Saylor on Bloomberg notes Bitcoin’s weightless, borderless nature makes it immune to tariffs.
Volatility Compression: Since Bitcoin ETFs launched, 90-day rolling volatility has dropped below 40 — less than 2× gold’s — suggesting a structurally different, steadier bull market.
Cycle Danger Zone: On-chain analyst Checkmate highlights we’re within 30 days of the historical post-halving blow-off top window; debate over whether this cycle breaks the four-year pattern.
Central Banking & Money Creation: Clip from Richard Werner explaining commercial banks’ ability to create money from nothing sparks discussion on fiat fragility, war financing, and the importance of Bitcoin as sound money.