The team breaks down weakening labor data, near-certain September rate cuts, and why rising long yields scream fiscal dominance. Gold’s strength, Harvard’s BTC+gold allocation, Treasury buybacks, and Dalio’s warning all point the same way: fiat stress. Meanwhile, Bitcoin matures—volatile edges soften, treasuries adopt BTC, and new payment rails emerge.
Global long-yield rise vs. easing cycles; fiscal dominance and debt saturation
Fed cuts likely in September; inflation still >2%
Gold performance and the “trust migration” from fiat assets
Harvard endowment signal; Treasury long-bond buybacks funded by bills
Dalio’s “debt-induced heart attack” timeline
Bitcoin seasonality and volatility compression; SOV → MoE arc
Corporate BTC treasuries surpass 1M BTC; possible MSTR S&P 500 inclusion
ARC + Lightning progress; Bitcoin culture (“Killing Satoshi”)