Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Healthy Hopium: Bitcoin Adoption Curve, ETF Stickiness, and Trump Shockwaves

Episode Summary

Bitcoin chops near $90K, but Brady and John argue the long-term adoption and liquidity backdrop still supports constructive “healthy hopium.” They cover accelerating ETF institutionalization (Morgan Stanley’s branded launch, BofA/Merrill approval), resilient ETF flows, and how Trump-era tariff, housing, and defense proposals could inject sector-specific volatility into markets.

Episode Notes

• Bitcoin holds around ~$90K as Brady and John frame the current range as a “higher floor” era with potential upside catalysts still intact
• “Healthy hopium” segment compares Bitcoin adoption to the internet’s S-curve and revisits how skeptics routinely dismiss exponential technologies
• Discussion of long-horizon Bitcoin returns using a “wealth table” framing: short-term noise, long-term trend clarity
• Lynn Alden’s view: recent selloff lows may hold as liquidity conditions improve and excess “Bitcoin treasury company” activity gets washed out
• ETF adoption story accelerates: Morgan Stanley launches branded Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, notably skipping Ethereum
• Bank of America/Merrill opens advisor access to multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs with a framed 1–4% allocation for suitable clients
• ETF flows remain resilient: outflows are modest relative to the drawdown, suggesting a stickier, longer-term holder base
• Macro/politics: Supreme Court tariff case is approaching a decision, with markets likely reacting in a messy, sector-specific way rather than a clean “tariffs on/off” binary
• Housing policy: Trump floats MBS buying to compress mortgage spreads and proposes restricting institutional purchases of single-family homes, with questions on feasibility and real impact
• Defense policy whiplash: conflicting announcements trigger sharp moves in defense stocks, highlighting policy-driven volatility risk