Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Bitcoin Cycles Are Breaking: The Fed’s “Not-QE” QE + Institutional Floor at $90k?

Episode Summary

Brady and John unpack Bitcoin’s sideways year near $90k and argue the four-year cycle may be breaking under stickier institutional demand. They cover gold-vs-Bitcoin “debasement trade” cycles, the Fed’s rebranded balance-sheet expansion, legal questions around Fed independence, BitGo’s bank approval, Do Kwon’s sentencing, and Satoshi’s legacy.

Episode Notes

• Bitcoin chops around ~$90k after a brief move toward ~$94k, highlighting a “flat net” year vs late-2024 levels
• Brady revisits a long-running thesis: institutions, corporates, and nation-states may be dampening the classic four-year boom/bust cycle
• Matthew Sigel (via Bernstein) is cited arguing for an elongated cycle, limited ETF outflows during a ~30% correction, and higher long-range price targets
• The show contrasts Bitcoin and gold narratives, using a long-cycle framework to discuss “debasement trade” environments and why hard assets can rotate vs equities
• The Fed’s latest moves are framed as balance-sheet expansion via “reserve management purchases” of T-bills—QE-by-another-name and “money printing,” even if not labeled QE
• A Supreme Court case is discussed regarding presidential removal authority of federal officials, and why the Fed is viewed as a politically sensitive “special case”
• Michael Saylor posts a cryptic “guess the bank” photo (identified by viewers as JPMorgan HQ), fueling speculation about warming big-bank relationships
• BitGo receives conditional OCC approval to convert to a national trust bank, emphasizing 100% reserves and nationwide digital-asset custody authority
• Do Kwon is sentenced (15 years) for the Terra/Luna collapse; the hosts discuss “orange-washing” and how Bitcoin branding can be used to legitimize scams
• Satoshi’s final public post anniversary is noted as a core “feature” of Bitcoin—no founder, no leader, no centralized rule-changes—followed by a Swan product and services overview