Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

Bitcoin Crash or Bull Run Setup? with Lyn Alden

Episode Summary

Lyn Alden joins Brady and John to unpack Bitcoin’s pullback, explaining why macro liquidity now drives cycles more than halvings. They cover recession risk, TGA and repo pressures, OG distribution dynamics, treasury company financing, and France’s unrealized wealth tax proposal, outlining why the bull market likely extends beyond today’s consolidation.

Episode Notes

• Lyn Alden returns to discuss Bitcoin’s current cycle, macro conditions, and her new sci-fi novel
• Panel examines a ~25% pullback and whether it’s a pause or a new bear market
• Lyn argues halvings now matter less; macro and liquidity dominate price action
• John notes 2025 doesn’t resemble 2021’s top across inflation, M2, deficits, and Fed posture
• Bitcoin behaves more like a large-cap asset with institutional rebalancing muting extremes
• Lyn sees mild recession risk amid fiscal dominance and a two-speed economy, with reacceleration in 2026–27
• TGA fill and recent repo stress cited as short-term drags on Bitcoin liquidity
• “OG” distribution framed as an IPO-like rotation to broader holders
• Treasury company update: Strive’s 12% SATA preferred and MicroStrategy’s new issuance, with scale advantages likely to concentrate winners
• Debate on France’s proposed 1% unrealized wealth tax and why Bitcoin is productive monetary savings, not luxury wealth